
Vol.
2 Number 8 �
October 30,2003
� 2003 by Stan B. Walters
All Rights Reserved
"Intuitive versus Analytical Diagnosis of
Credibility"
by
Stan can be
reached by email at
Stan@TheLieGuy.com .
Stan writes, teaches & speaks internationally on deception,
interview & interrogation.
Historically human beings are very bad at spotting deception
failing on average 50% or more the time to identify lies.
Unfortunately, investigative interviewers and professionals
in many other disciplines also have the same poor
performance based on numerous research studies. One of the
major contributing factors is that most of us make our
assessments about whether a person is being truthful or
deceptive based on our �gut feelings� and other undefined
symptoms. Such intuitive assessments have always proven
themselves to be inconsistent and unreliable. When an
investigative interviewer focuses their analysis on more
reliable documented verbal and nonverbal cues, their
accuracy dramatically improves.
An �intuitive� analysis of a subject frequently is
characterized by comments such as �I think he�s lying� or �I
know he�s hiding something.� When you ask the observer
what specific behaviors make them believe the person is
deceptive you often get answers such as �I can tell,� �You
just know� and they fail to identify any reliable cues.
When they do cite verbal or nonverbal cues those that are
mentioned as deception markers are more often than not are
just signs of stress or incriminating stress cues and fail
to isolate lies.
A reliable analytical diagnosis of behavior focuses on
specific questions or issues and clearly defined behavior
responses by the subject. These analyses are characterized
by comments including terms such as �clusters�, �timing�,
�consistent�, �change� and �constant.� In these cases the
interviewer � observer can be very specific about a
subject�s deception and can name the particular behaviors.
The behaviors mentioned will be cues identified as �denial�,
�aversion�, �negation�, �contradiction�, �unclear thought
line� or �performance.�
The danger of making an �intuitive� diagnosis is that they
are subject to �pre-conceptions� by the interviewer that
more often than not results in gross misdiagnosis. As we�ve
discussed in the past the existence of pre-conception on
behalf of the interviewer is also most often results in
contamination of the interview further compounding the error
of the credibility assessment. The end result of such a
flawed analysis can be wasted time, investigative effort and
resources and at worst a case subject to crushing attacks
that can be made in defense of the subject in trial and
disciplinary proceedings. An analytical diagnosis requires
a lot more effort by the interviewer. The observer will
force themselves to resist making blanket statements about
their subject�s lack of honesty without specific behaviors
they have identified to support their conclusions. Case
made with such extensive micro-analysis typical contain
better quality information and often other forensic sources
that provide confirmation of the subject�s remarks. These
cases are also more likely to survive any challenge of
prejudice, flawed analysis, contamination and some cases
even false confession. On what basis are you deciding the
subject is being deceptive � your �gut feelings� or reliable
behavioral cues that you can cite on a point-to-point basis?
Don�t just tell me your subject is lying � tell me what he
or she is lying about and the specific behaviors that have
led you to that conclusion.
�
2003 by Stan B. Walters All Rights Reserved